Retail Media is gathering steam, but not all players will win the arms race

Retail media is fast becoming one of the most significant forces in advertising. What started as a niche revenue stream for major retailers has rapidly evolved into a multi-billion-dollar battleground, with new entrants piling in and established players fortifying their positions. 

And it’s not slowing down. Retail media is now outpacing TV ad spend in multiple markets, just as we predicted. According to eMarketer, Amazon is still king, holding around 40% of the global retail media market (up from 37% in 2023) and approx. 75 – 80% of the US market and pulling in over USD $60 billion a year from ads alone.  

The numbers speak for themselves. According to GroupM, global retail media revenue is expected to reach $176.9 billion in 2025, accounting for 15.9% of total advertising spend. Based on its anticipated growth trajectory, this indicates that retail media is projected to constitute a significant portion of the overall ad market, highlighting its growing influence within the advertising landscape. 

Closer to home, Australia’s retail media sector is booming. Morgan Stanley forecasts retail media spending in Australia on in-house/owned ad platforms to grow to $2.8 billion in 2027 from around $1 billion in 2022. Retailers are racing to carve out their share of this lucrative market - but history suggests that not all will succeed. 

Who will thrive, and who will falter? To understand where retail media is headed, we need to look at four key dynamics shaping the space: 

• The explosive growth - both globally and locally 

• The flood of new entrants and the rush to cash in 

• Lessons from the US: Why dominance is consolidating among a few 

• How publishers and tech giants are fighting back 

Retail Media’s Explosive Growth 

Retail media’s ascent isn’t just hype - it’s backed by real dollars shifting away from traditional advertising channels. The appeal is clear: first-party data, closed-loop attribution, and highly engaged audiences make retail media a powerhouse for brands seeking better ROI on their ad spend. 

Globally, retail media networks are expanding beyond traditional retailers. Uber and DoorDash have aggressively entered the space, leveraging their platforms’ transactional and location data to monetise advertising as part of a new emerging segment of “on the move retail media”. Meanwhile, major global players like Amazon, Walmart, and Instacart continue to dominate, setting the pace for market growth. 

The retail media revolution in Australia has accelerated dramatically over the past two years. Woolworths' Cartology has expanded its digital offering with new advanced targeting capabilities, Coles360 has reported record revenue growth, and newcomers like Priceline and Australia Post have also launched their own media networks. The Australian market is quickly becoming crowded, but as we’ve seen overseas, rapid growth often leads to an eventual shakeout. 

A closer look at the new entrants in the Australian market over the past 12 months 

With retail media proving to be a cash cow, every retailer with a significant customer base is looking to monetise their assets. From supermarkets and hardware chains to convenience stores, ride-sharing platforms, and even postal services, the land grab is on. 

Some notable moves in the past 12 months include: 

• Bunnings Hammer Media  

  
  

  Officially launched in early 2025, giving suppliers access to a range of omnichannel advertising opportunities across its digital, in-store, and owned media assets. Its approach focuses on full-funnel solutions, leveraging Bunnings' massive in-store foot traffic and footprint combined with customer data to drive both brand awareness and conversion. The offering includes digital display, search, social media, sponsored product listings, and in-store activations. Bunnings has a distinct advantage in many categories, and the brand boasts high levels of market share making it one of the only solutions for brands operating in building materials, tools and equipment, paint and coatings and more.  With the ability to reach both B2C and B2B audiences, the offering also has appeal for those brands who are looking to reach both a DIY and professional | tradie market.   

• Priceline Pharmacy  

  
  

In mid March 2025, Priceline Pharmacy also entered the foray, launching its offering at their national supplier forum. Touting the ability to influence customers at all stages of the customer journey, Priceline is looking to take a share of the highly competitive health and wellness market, which has historically been dominated by ChemistWarehouse. 

According to the AFR however in October 2024, it was suggested that ChemistWarehouse had seen a dive in revenues from retail media of $150m over the prior 2 years.  With competition from TerryWhitePharmacy, Coles and Woolworths and Adore Beauty this is a hotly contested space and it will be challenging for brands stocked across an array of retailers to spread spend across all players and effectively deliver return whilst they are at it.  One of the big challenges facing brands like Priceline is their lack of effective integration of product information into their eCommerce experience which makes optimisation and effective management of digital shelf a key concern for suppliers, one which will hurt conversions and performance. 

• Adore Beauty 

Adore Beauty have recently expanded beyond eCommerce with its first physical store opening on February 1, 2025, at Melbourne’s Westfield Southland. This marks the beginning of a broader omnichannel strategy, with plans to open over 25 stores nationwide. To complement this move, Adore Beauty has partnered with retail media platform Zitcha, integrating onsite, offsite, and in-store media solutions to help its 300+ brand partners engage with customers more effectively.  

By leveraging its extensive first-party data derived from eCommerce and high brand awareness, Adore Beauty’s retail media network offers personalised and targeted advertising opportunities. Its new physical stores mirror the online experience, featuring curated product selections, digital kiosks, and services like digital skin analysis. This seamless blend of digital and in-store retail reinforces Adore Beauty’s position as an innovator in the beauty space and is well placed to take a slice of the retail media health and wellness pie. 

Outside of the core retail media space, we have also seen the entry of new players who are operating at the fringe of the industry.  

• Australian Venue Co.

AVC's Experience+ has taken retail media beyond traditional retail, using its extensive hospitality footprint to offer media opportunities within its venues. Launched in June 2024, with over 200+ pubs and hospitality venues, it’s creating new ways for brands to engage with consumers in social, leisure-driven environments and moments, providing a unique advertising channel that traditional retail media networks can’t match. In February this year, Australian Venue Co struck new partnerships with Zitcha, Mercato, and Perion to unify and digitise key aspects of AVC’s retail media operation, collectively enabling data-driven planning, buying, and optimisation of campaigns, both in-venue and across digital channels which will allow advertisers to plan and execute campaigns more effectively, tapping into both in-venue customers and online audiences with unmatched precision. 

• Australia Post 

Australia Post is an unexpected but strategic entrant into retail media. With over 4,000 post offices and millions of daily digital interactions, it's leveraging its reach to offer advertising opportunities across digital assets, transactional touchpoints, and in-store media. The focus is on high-intent consumers engaging with mail, parcels, and essential services, giving brands a way to connect with households at key moments of engagement. 

While new players continue to emerge, success in retail media isn’t just about launching a network - it’s about scaling it, being able to deliver reach, proving ROI, and remaining at the forefront of innovation to remain competitive. The US market provides a cautionary tale. 

Lessons from the US: The Consolidation Game 

For a glimpse as to what Australia’s retail media future might look like, we can learn from those further afield who have been at the retail media game a lot longer – being those operating in the US and UK markets.   

In the US retail media has exploded stateside, with the sector accounting for nearly $52 billion in ad spend last year alone.  

Yet despite the massive opportunity, power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few major players. 

There are over 200 retail media networks in the US and more than 650 globally, but brands aren’t spreading their budgets across all of them. Instead, most advertisers focus on the key players - that drive the best ROI. The reality is, brands don’t need to be everywhere; they need to be where it matters most and they don’t have the resources to manage the ever growing retail media landscape. Yet, with new networks launching all the time, it’s easy for advertisers to feel overwhelmed by the sheer volume of options. 

Amazon, Walmart, and Instacart dominate the space in the US, with Amazon alone controlling 75% of all retail media spend. Smaller networks have struggled to compete for three key reasons: 

1. Many fail to scale or deliver the same level of performance-driven results and the same level of reach.  

2. Smaller players struggle to match the capabilities of larger players across targeting, measurement, depth and breadth of product offering and more 

3. CPGs and FMCGs don’t have infinite budgets and resources to manage a long tail of providers in the market.  

   
   

As a result we expect to see as we see globally:

• Smaller retail media networks folding or merging, as advertisers gravitate towards platforms with the best data and performance capabilities. 

• Retailers realising that building a media business isn’t just ‘turning on ads’ - it requires investment in data infrastructure, ad tech, and partnerships to remain viable. 

• Brands consolidating spend towards a few high-performing retail networks, rather than spreading budgets too thin. 

• Amazon taking much greater market-share in the local market overtime.  

  
  

For Australian retailers diving into retail media, the key lesson from the US are clear: if you can’t deliver measurable ROI at scale, advertisers will walk. 

The Pushback: Publishers and Tech Giants Are Fighting Back 

As retail media networks continue to expand, publishers and tech giants aren’t sitting idly by. Instead of competing directly, many are now partnering with retailers or integrating their ad tech solutions into retail media ecosystems - a classic case of “if you can’t beat them, join them.” 

Google and The Trade Desk have been actively working on ways to support retail media networks, offering ad tech solutions that allow brands to buy retail media programmatically while leveraging their existing infrastructure. 

Meta and TikTok have also increased collaboration with retailers, making it easier for brands to link retail media spend with social commerce campaigns. 

CTV and streaming platforms are exploring ways to merge retail media data with their own audience targeting, creating cross-channel opportunities that bridge traditional and digital advertising. 

At the same time, traditional publishers are pushing back and also seeking a slice of the pie by leveraging their own first-party data and audience insights to compete with retail media and launch new eCommerce media and shoppable media offerings amongst others – and locally publishers like News.com.au have dived into the landscape.  

The battle for advertising dollars is no longer just between retailers and traditional media - it’s now a fight for control over first-party data, ad tech integration, and seamless measurement.  

 The Road Ahead: Who Will Win Retail Media’s Arms Race? 

 Not all retail media networks will survive. In the coming years, we’re likely to see: 

• Consolidation: The strongest players will solidify their market share, while smaller networks may struggle to scale or be acquired. 

• Tech investment: Winning networks will continue investing in AI, automation, and closed-loop measurement to drive superior ad performance. 

• Stronger competition from traditional players: Publishers and platforms like Google and Meta won’t cede ground easily and whilst they are partnering with retailers, they will continue to innovate and build their own retail and eCommerce media solutions.  

• Greater advertiser scrutiny: Brands will demand more from retail media networks, pushing for clearer attribution and proven ROI. 

  
  

For brands, the retail media boom presents both opportunity and complexity. Navigating this evolving landscape requires understanding where to invest, which networks will deliver long-term value, and how to avoid being spread too thin. 

The race to dominate retail media is well and truly underway. But if history tells us anything, it’s that not all players will win. While some networks will thrive, others will struggle to scale, differentiate, or prove their value to advertisers. 

One thing is certain - retail media isn’t slowing down. But not every player who enters the game will make it to the finish line. 

---

Arktic Fox is partnering with retailers and brands to establish and optimise their retail media strategies. Find out how we can help your organisation leverage the retail media opportunity.